A Simple Formula to Evaluate a Tipster’s Abilities

A simple way to evaluate a tipster’s true abilities is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made:
√ (No. Selections) + ½ (Total Plays Made)
For example, if he has 400 tips, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If the tipster is 20 selections above 200, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare.
Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
--Pinnacle Sports

Bet Sizing

N = 25
5.9%
6.4%
6.9%
7.7%
8.5%
N = 50
4.0%
4.5%
5.1%
6.0%
7.2%
N = 75
3.2%
3.7%
4.3%
5.3%
6.8%
N = 100
2.7%
3.2%
3.8%
4.9%
6.7%
N = 125
2.4%
2.9%
3.6%
4.7%
6.7%
N = 150
2.1%
2.6%
3.2%
4.5%
6.7%
N = 200
1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
4.4%
6.7%
N = 250
1.6%
2.0%
2.8%
4.4%
6.7%
N = 300
1.4%
1.8%
2.6%
4.4%
6.7%
N = 400
1.2%
1.6%
2.4%
4.4%
6.7%
N = 500 (#bets)
1.0% 50%
1.4% 52.5$
2.3% 55%
4.4% 57.5%
6.7% 60%

Probability of Handicapping Percentages

Ratio 1 Seasons 2 Seasons 3 Seasons 4 Seasons 5 Seasons
0.5 0.5 0.517523 0.5 0.512393 0.5
0.51 0.354641 0.314437 0.282985 0.257059 0.234993
0.52 0.267178 0.178085 0.125486 0.101366 0.074229
0.53 0.160065 0.086589 0.049447 0.025155 0.015098
0.54 0.106982 0.035817 0.013066 0.004959 0.001926
0.55 0.053095 0.012519 0.002569 0.000687 0.000152
0.56 0.023385 0.00282 0.000373 0.000051 0.000007
0.57 0.012645 0.00067 0.000053 0.000003 0
0.58 0.00453 0.000133 0.000004 0 0
0.59 0.00213 0.000022 0 0 0
0.6 0.000617 0.000003 0 0 0

Season 250 games

Wizard of Odds