A simple way to evaluate a tipster’s true abilities is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made:
√ (No. Selections) + ½ (Total Plays Made)
For example, if he has 400 tips, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If the tipster is 20 selections above 200, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare.
Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
--Pinnacle Sports
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